Office of the Deputy Prime Minister

Turnout at Local Elections

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

INTRODUCTION

Notwithstanding their apparent importance, the recent record of participation at English local elections has been poor. Turnout is much lower (often less than half the level) than at British general elections and compares unfavourably with sub-national elections in other advanced democracies. Turnout has also been falling, but declining participation is an international phenomenon, and not solely at the sub-national level.

The Government's modernisation agenda, outlined in the White Paper Modern Local Government - In Touch with the People (TSO 1998), should be seen in this context. One of the key objectives of the Government is to enhance local democracy through both representative and participative means. A study of the nature and scope of non-electoral public participation in local government has already been undertaken for the DETR (Lowndes et al 1998). The Representation of the People Act 2000 provides for the piloting of various new procedures to facilitate the act of voting.

RESEARCH OBJECTIVES

The programme of research reported here is designed to draw together the latest evidence about the relationship between electoral procedures and turnout. As such it forms a crucial baseline for any future studies that might be undertaken to evaluate the impact of local authority pilots of new electoral procedures on levels of participation. The key objectives of the research are:

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

These objectives were pursued through a variety of research methods. A postal questionnaire was sent to all local authorities in England with responsibility for compiling the electoral register in the spring of 1999. It asked for responses on a wide range of topics and was designed as an audit of electoral practices and outcomes. The survey achieved a response rate of 71%.

A comprehensive and rigorous statistical analysis of the relationship between local election turnout and a wide range of political, structural and socio-economic variables - including some derived from the survey of local authorities - was conducted. Using data at both local authority and ward level, this covered all local elections in England during the period 1973 to 1999.

Case study research was conducted in 8 local authority areas during the autumn of 1999. Sites for the case studies were selected following the statistical analysis of all authorities. Those chosen appeared to display unexpectedly high or low patterns of turnout for their local authority type. International comparisons were based on both a secondary review of the relevant literature and an extensive programme of 'internet' research.

LOCAL AUTHORITY INITIATIVES AND PRACTICES

The survey findings provided clear evidence that many local authorities continue to strive to improve the process of electoral registration and to facilitate voting among their electorate. There remain wide variations in the extent to which initiatives have been adopted, but more local authorities than at the time of a previous survey in 1996 now appear to be committed to modernisation in this area.

The range of measures adopted by local authorities is very wide. The vast majority have tried to streamline the information available to those registering to vote and have taken steps to publicise the absent vote facility. However, fewer authorities have thought it appropriate to introduce initiatives designed to encourage people actually to use their vote. About one in two local authorities reported that registration and/or turnout had been the subject of formal discussion at committee or whole council meetings. Several authorities, both in the survey and during the case study interviews, accepted that electoral registration was a function amenable to audit and that the service would be included within their 'best value' regime. There was less willingness to take responsibility for turnout, although a few authorities had committed themselves to targeted increases in participation.

There was widespread interest among local authorities in piloting new electoral arrangements. The single most popular experiments were universal postal voting and electronic voting.

IMPACT ON REGISTRATION AND PARTICIPATION

Although local authorities found it easy to list the initiatives they had undertaken to try to enhance registration and participation, they were less clear about their impact. There was some consensus that the introduction of new procedures had led - at least initially - to increased registration. Similarly, many survey respondents could quantify the success of campaigns to encourage absent vote applications. Even taking into account the fact that simply applying for an absent vote betokens some interest in the electoral process, it does seem significant that the turnout among absent voters is often twice as high as among those obliged to vote in person.

There was greater scepticism, however, about the impact of local authority based initiatives to increase turnout. Some authorities claimed that they had increased awareness about local elections even if not turnout, but little systematic analysis seems to have been undertaken. Many were equally concerned to point out that important determinants of turnout, such as the salience of local issues and the general political climate, were outside their control. It was also argued, both in relation to current initiatives and to putative experiments with new procedures, that any impact would be seen only over the long term.

KEY DRIVERS OF LOCAL ELECTION TURNOUT

A core concern of the research was to determine precisely how we could account for different levels of election turnout in different local authorities. Initial analysis of the data revealed the cyclical pattern over time in voter turnout to be broadly similar across types of local authority. In other words, that the reduction in turnout seen in recent years was a characteristic of all types of authority and places. Within this pattern a number of political and structural variables were shown to have a positive influence on turnout. These included:

In addition to these factors, an equation based solely on 1991 data showed a strong negative correlation between voter turnout and population migration. In other words, the more stable a ward's population base, the higher its turnout. There was, however, very little sign of a positive association between a wide range of local authority participation initiatives and electoral practices with voter turnout.

The relationship of socio-economic factors to turnout could not be statistically proven. However, simple correlations did point up relationships that have considerable common-sense validity and have been supported by individual level survey evidence. For example, those areas with a high proportion of elderly voters are more likely to have high turnouts - with the reverse relationship applying where there are many young voters. Wards with homogeneous class compositions are likely also to be the least politically competitive. In that sense, it is less surprising that socio-economic status seemed not to be an important independent variable in explaining turnout variations.

Both the survey and the case studies highlighted factors that local authorities themselves thought had had an influence on turnout, but which could not be operationalised in the statistical model. The importance of electoral marginality was acknowledged, but this was tied to party political activity. In other words, voters are unlikely to know how marginal their ward is unless they receive a (surrogate) indication through the campaigning activities of the political parties. Parties will have different levels of activity in different places regardless of the objective electoral situation. In the case studies there was a unanimous perception that party activity had decreased in recent years and that campaign effort was focused on only a few wards.

There also appeared to be differences between case study authorities in terms of the role of the local media and the existence of a strong local identity. In some case study authorities, the continued existence of a well-read, community based local paper which gave coverage to local issues and to elections was felt to boost public interest and participation. In other authorities, the media were less localist in orientation and penetration. Authorities whose population had become more mobile and those that had reason to think that levels of identity with the local council were weak believed that such factors adversely affected turnout.

LESSONS FROM ELECTORAL PRACTICES AND TURNOUT ABROAD

International comparisons show that significant differences exist between countries in the areas of electoral registration, official responses to low turnout and overall levels of turnout. However, those reluctant to register, whether the system is voluntary or compulsory, are similar in all states. The problems are greatest among the poor and the young.

Various initiatives to improve electoral participation have been introduced. Most can be described under the broad heading of 'bringing the electoral process closer to the people'. Some countries, for example, Norway and some states in North America, now have early or advanced voting where voters may cast a ballot in the weeks leading to the election. The practice of absent voting, principally postal voting, has proved a successful initiative in raising levels of turnout. There have also been recent, though limited initiatives in the field of electronic voting in Belgium, New Zealand and the United States.

The comparative analysis of sub-national electoral turnout showed it to be in general decline, apparently regardless of the scope and power of those institutions. Few countries have been immune to the process of growing voter apathy. Declining turnout is not solely a British malaise.

POLICY IMPLICATIONS FOR LOCAL AUTHORITIES AND CENTRAL GOVERNMENT

The various aspects of the research contain a number of lessons about how local authorities and central government may continue to pursue a goal of greater participation in local elections. They also, however, contain a warning that poor levels of turnout are a reflection of wider attitudes in society and that solutions to the underlying problem are unlikely to be found simply through changes in procedures and systems.

A variety of 'best practice' in terms of electoral procedures can be identified. It may not have a direct impact on turnout levels in the short term, but it does make for a more efficient and elector friendly system. It does seem appropriate to set standards of service for registration, polling place access etc and for it to be included within 'best value'. The enthusiasm among local authorities for pilots must be tapped. Many are willing to give almost anything a try, although they understandably claim that such experiments need to be adequately resourced and need sufficient time to be evaluated properly. The general theme is the need to bring the ballot box to the people.

The exhaustive statistical analysis clearly confirms that the more competitive the political situation in a local authority/ward, the greater will be the turnout. That may be stating the obvious, but by taking voters for granted or by targeting some wards at the exclusion of others, the political parties could be said to have had some influence over declining levels of voter turnout.

General social trends, which are not confined to Britain, seem to be damaging participation in elections. Many respondents were of the view that greater geographical mobility and more extensive social and leisure frameworks mean that fewer people identify with the local authority in which they happen to live and see little reason to take any part in it. However, there is still evidence that such a reaction varies from place to place and the authorities that continue to have relatively high turnout are those which have best resisted this trend. Clearly, more research is needed that will uncover the processes at work in the development and maintenance of a local civic culture.

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Published 3 May 2000
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